Ep 43 – NFL Conference Championship Picks, Predictions & Props [💤 + 🌧️]
Turns out betting the NFL may be profitable on this podcast, who knew (rip bankroll)? This episode I discuss how I did last week in picking NFL divisional games. Of course, I dive DEEP into this weekend’s NFL’s playoffs championship round (AFC and NFC championship matchups). This episode provides picks for NFL championship weekend matchups (start at 40:15). Keep in mind, I am not a (professional) sports analyst, this is used for (my own) entertainment purposes while using background soothing noises to induce sleep and relaxation. I blend in rain sounds and outdoor sounds to help you relax and help get rid of insomnia and for sleep. Having a yawn-inducing voice does help!
Remember, ALWAYS do your due diligence, most of my NFL conference championship weekend picks (AKA: Week 20 picks) are for fun and my analysis aren’t meant to be taken super seriously. But I’ve been profitable so far so that’s pretty cool.
I will keep record of my picks. The types of picks that I make include:
* All 4 games and their spreads
* All 4 games and over/unders
* Moneyline picks that are great value IMO
* NFL plays & predictions on scores and my logic
* *BONUS: GAME PROPS AND PLAYER PROPS*
* View Picks[ Here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z7_aYU-fCbqjWE8HodLjWcQWUkDl247ODyzyygY5Cb8/edit?usp=sharing)
**This week’s matchups**
* AFC Championship (Titans vs Chiefs)
* NFC Championship (Packers vs 49ers)
I love documenting my picks and keeping track of progress. My love for sports predictions and responsible sports betting has taken off thanks to this podcast. Thank you all for listening.
TRANSCRIPTION (Via Otter.ai and removing redundancies via Grammarly…their will be errors)
Hello, Hello, this is Joey here. Welcome back to Droolish. Let’s get to it.(intro)
Welcome back to Droolish. I am your host, Joey Montano, strangely in sync today, so that’s kind of weird. If you’re unfamiliar with the show, podcast, or whatever you like to call it these days. Droolish is a sleep and relaxation podcast focused on helping you sleep through the sounds of ambient noise in the backgrounds topped with. I guess I could say my calming voice supposedly beats me. I like to talk about a variety of subjects. Generally, Currently, I’m a kind of interface between some NFL talk and startups. But I still throw it into additional subjects occasionally, and I do plan to add a lot more variety in the near future over today I know a lot of you have been waiting for this, because I don’t know why. But this seems to be the type of stuff that I don’t know more Americans love to listen to. And that’s sports betting, especially for the NFL playoffs. And I’ve been doing NFL picks throughout the season. And, you know, those have been pretty decent. But over the time frame, I’ve been, you know, becoming more of a fan of the sports betting specifically. And over that season, as I’ve been making bets and tracking my own bets, especially for the NFL, you know, not using any model pics just using my own due diligence and my own research and just my love of the game. For the most part. At least when it comes to spreads. I’ve been winning at a 70% rate, which is, you know, according to I guess more spell sport, a little sports betters to it tends to be, I guess, quote-unquote, crushing it. But, you know, that’s only after I think about 40 better so so I’m not going to say the next I don’t know like the Paleo sports betting or whatever. But you know, it’s still a small sample size, and it could just be on the heater. And I just wanted to record all my bets for the season just to see if I was actually good at it versus me thinking it’s good. And now that’s tying over to the playoffs. Again. I should say that again, first and foremost, I am not a sports analyst. Or at least not professionally, I just do this because I love researching NFL games. I love researching kind of the matchups per se but certain games in particular. And I’m generally a huge fan and big advocate of teamplay momentum in kind of all the like those little intangibles that are coming into most of these games. And if you listen to my other episodes, I do have a big, big heart for underdogs. So that might be my shortcoming. Because I think throughout the season, I had my Moneyline upset pics which I was profitable but only by one unit. So Describe more about all that like the terminology and betting as we get into it, but I’d wanted to make sure you guys had a good heads up on what you’re going to be expecting today. With that said, we’re going to be reviewing the last week’s pics discussing that in context because I believe context matters, especially with regards to wins and losses. I think they’re good quality bets or you know, games you can bet on and then bad pics bad quality games, and I wanted to go over those and you know, make sure I had the proper callouts as I see fit. So yeah, so that’s, that’s kind of what I was thinking there. Outside of that, since there are only going to be two games for the AFC and NFC Championship week. I decided to look more into some props as well. I don’t I feel like just reviewing the games and talking about maybe like four or five pics, maybe really isn’t enough. Not just enough content, but I feel like if I still talk to her about the like the props and everything else it should be Enough, you know, it should be enough talking points for me to help you fall asleep hopefully. Again, when it comes to most of this stuff, you shouldn’t take when I say, you know, 1,000% serious, these are just my personal plays my personal thoughts on games. And if you’re going to do your own due diligence, do it on your with do when you’re awake, don’t do it before you go to bed, especially if you’re having trouble sleeping. Again, I really want to focus on this being a sleeping podcast foremost. And I do get that there are certain subjects that might be more interesting to other folks and some not so much. And that’s kind of why I like to talk about a variety of subjects because I, I do believe and I feel like I should be able to, you know, hit the nail on the head on every single subject, mainly because if you find every topic very interesting, more likely going to be listening to the podcast and hopefully, worst-case scenario is that you’re awake. And if that’s the case, then you probably shouldn’t listen to this throughout the day, or maybe during the work and kind of just have a calming and relaxing experience while you’re at work. Primarily the way I see it. is when you’re trying to go to sleep. I really do love the white noise. And again, people do tend to yawn and get really tired when I speak generally. Yeah, it could just be how I talk or how I speak. I don’t know, I don’t know, maybe some psychiatrists or one of the 20 professors that I’m pretty sure listening and just deciphering these podcasts episodes can explain to explain it to me. I’m not famous enough or rich enough to, you know, have my own psychiatry, some people break down the podcast. So once maybe whenever I reach that threshold of fame, some YouTube celebrity psychiatrists or armchair psychologists can do it for free. That’ll be cool. I don’t know. But either way, if you have any feedback, comments, or criticisms, that’ll take back the criticisms. I don’t want to hear the haters. Maybe I do. Maybe they might have points as items, feedback, comments or suggestions for the podcast, feel free to send me an email at Droolish Podcast at Gmail. com. I’m also fairly active on Twitter, or at the very least, I am more apt to looking at that more frequently. Type in Droolish Podcast on Twitter, and I’m there. And Facebook, I have a Facebook page, but I don’t really use it too much, and I’d rather just stick with the email and Twitter for the time being.
AFC and NFC Divisional Round Recap
So that’s said, let’s just dive into last week’s conference arena sorry divisional round games, not the wild card divisional round games. Now I’m going to test something right now to I am actually in the middle of a kitchen renovation. So if you hear any noises in the background, I’m actually going to be double-checking. And I might have to be doing additional edits of the sounds a little bit off, I apologize but I trying to catch up on the recording days and I’m doing a trying to do my best to stay on schedule garlis of what’s going on in the background, and I can hear a lot of noises. So hopefully, the rage to drown it out. Generally, the rain I have is to enjoy the journey like to have the rain that’s here from the outside, but either it sounds like it’s from a 10 Intro from the car. I don’t know, I feel like those are like the most. I guess if you’re an SMR, fad, or audio sensory, you know, music whatever it’s called ASMR MSR what it was to the fan of those, I don’t know, I feel like those are like the pinnacle of like a white noise sounds. And we’re gonna try to find more additional sounds to over the timeframe of like the next few podcasts because I don’t know I like variety. I like to talk about it actually before I dive in, and I say this like two or three times before I get to the point to a side note, I always put the timestamps in my descriptions. So if you’re ready, just go straight to the reviews, or say last week’s recap of episodes or pics, I should say. Feel free to look at that and then move ahead. And yeah, just one big side note that I wanted to mention. The last week my sleep quality has dramatically improved overall. And by that I mean when we talk about sleep, I mean just eat it. What about Sleep, but the overall you know, wellness of the sleeper getting is in your waking up, probably feeling more refreshed. I think that’s a part of like when I like to call you know let’s say like sleep content that occasionally want to talk about because getting to sleep small thing and I know probably a lot of you if you’re like me even trying to get up is that how there is this is its own piece of itself just getting up in the morning, able to go to sleep because just enjoy sleeping so much once you get it. And one of the big things that’s changed for me and I mentioned this, I think earlier the week is that I’ve been holding off on like using cannabis before I go to sleep, but I’m switching to either CBD gummies and or just trying to just either adjusting the temperature in my room for example. And I’ve noticed pretty much about a week after you know I stopped using cannabis for sleep. I’ve been able to actually have more vivid dreams probably have been actually able to remember all of my dreams 70 That sounds like earlier the week, so about four or five days now, which is something I’ve not been able to do, probably since about a year and a half two years ago. So, for me, that’s, I consider that update when considering someone, someone like me who I have ADHD, and I feel like most of my thinking and most of my workout, everything else tends to come from, you know, an immersing myself in a subject or something that I’m really interested in be actually dreaming, dreaming out the work that I’m doing ahead of time and it sounds stupid, and I get it, but for some people who actually do or have that capability, I guess, but I think everyone does have that capability. Like I, for me, I can’t do any lucid dreaming. It’s only recently that I can actually recall, like, literally dreaming that I’m doing work or doing something that is something that I enjoy doing while mostly big. And despite the fact that at night I fall asleep but I get up I can get up at 230 in the morning. And then fall back asleep right away, which is something that hasn’t happened in a while. I don’t know, I think if you guys are some people here who have trouble sleeping, I don’t know if you guys use any aids, but I’m always a big fan of split testing. And that’s kind of like my words before I actually dive into the analysis and hopefully, you know, you guys could probably pack upon and do the same.
You know, especially if some of you are laying in bed right now. I don’t know just, maybe next morning or if you if there’s something that you feel like the room is a little bit hot or too cool, just test that and there’s also a pillow that a buddy of mine recommended a while back that it’s kind of a it’s like an archetype pillow or it’s kind of like a wedge pillow. And he said the same thing. He said, uh, he said despite the fact that that pillows pretty uncomfortable when you initially use it, the moment he had to use that pillow, his ability just to go to sleep just instantly went up. And he said he was able to remember all of his dreams, like vividly as well. So It’s not just trying to get to sleep I you know, I also want to throw like quality of sleep on top of that. So those are my fleet and those are my sleeping words for the day, I should say. So yeah, let’s get to the NFL pics, shall we? Or that’s an NFL recap I don’t want to jump ahead but NFL recap So, to recap the previous week, which was the divisional round, there were four matchups of Vikings, 40, Niners Titans, ravens, Texans chiefs and Seahawks of Packers. Unless the 40 Niners for whatever reason, it just feels like it’s all nabbit it’s like the most natural matchup of my head. So I bet four different types and first one is pickups with which if you guys are unfamiliar, I usually do Yahoo pickups and if you’re just picking you know random pics with your friends, I just try to go for the most, you know on paper got reactionary pics that I think make the most sense. But there really isn’t anything indicative or there’s nothing really at stake outside. I’m just bragging rights. So I wouldn’t say I want to take those that like super serious there. Then there are spreads, which are the ones that I personally do bets on or, or strongly urge you guys or make plays, but let’s be honest, I do the bets as well. And then I do moneyline pics which I only do those in certain games and then I pass and other ones because I explained this pretty frequently but I’ll recap it again for moneyline I really like to find myself a good underdog pic and a good value pick at the end of the day. And I’ll explain the processes like as we go over that for each matchup. And then I do the over-under which is pretty straightforward. Guess whether or not the line that biggest gives you is over under the month and give any more or less you don’t get your backpack. So heading into the divisional round, I was a one in three with pickups. And I believe I was three and one with spreads one in one with moneyline and two and two over-under divisional round review going starting with the Vikings 40 Niners the pic of my head was the 40 Niners to was to win the game and they did and then increase my record to two or three for pickups and I’ll just dive over the game as I see fit so I don’t want to like give a 20-minute analysis on one pickup and then just go where the other pics but as for the spread of the Vikings were plus seven plus seven points. I believe the final score of that game was just a beat down.
I don’t know where the score verbatim but the Vikings did not get within seven points. As a matter of fact, I had a teaser on that and they didn’t even give within 13 points or the victory. And I this was like a bad pick on my end. I don’t want to say it’s a terrible, terrible pic. If I’m just going to recap the game itself. We’re going to pull up like the score like I would pull up the score by quarter but I would say after the Half it was reasonably close. It was 14 to 10. San Francisco did have pretty good control throughout the game. I’m not gonna lie. The San Francisco does seem to have all three phases of their game down pat. And they are just a scary team. miscalculation in this game, specifically, was my belief that Minnesota had a stronger offense and I hope they had and I assume that their old line was going to help Kirk Cousins, at least throw the ball downfield for you know, at least give him like more than two seconds to operate. But I think he I think there was a stat that said he was like hurried, like five or six times or like sorry, it was like sacked five or six times hurried a lot more. And Kirk’s whole career. He’s always been dealing with poor offensive lines. In my opinion, that tends to be the big, the big X factor in his career because he always takes he seems to throw decent numbers in most of this time that he’s not really stat padding. I think Chris Collins worth last week. I think it was the NBC NBC pop broadcast. He actually had a pretty good split, where he talked about how his performance on either Monday night games for playoff games or playing vs playoff teams compared to non-playoff teams at any given Sunday are virtually the same. So whatever narrative that generally it is around Kirk Cousins, it tends to be false. And I’m glad that I’m glad that they pointed that out. At least they pointed it out after Kirk finally won his first playoff game. Which, by the way, I guess the saints on the road against the which was a Super Bowl contender with everyone thought so Minnesota did Pete them like I said prior before facing the 40 Niners so I’m glad that at least the media is starting to give Kirk Cousins is due and his credit. And I think a lot has to do with just winning like a single playoff game because it’s still pretty hard to do that. And I remember Patrick Holmes will get to that game too. He a lot of people were talking about he doesn’t win this game that he probably should start A little bit more criticized and its ability to win playoff games. But I digress there. But Kirk, you know, he had a decent performance but obviously was not enough. The San Francisco’s defense formed him 4849 hours between Morocco and everyone on their team. They’re just a well oiled machine. I just don’t want to spend too much time talking about 49 hours, I’ll be talking about them for this upcoming week. Whoever I was still off big time, they lost by 17 points, I probably would have won if I did the first half with fortunately, you know, this game was just this, this game got out of hand in the second half. So it makes a big difference there on the on the spread, man. I’m not a big fan of actually losing big on spreads. And interestingly enough, I might be talking about certain types of bed that’s in the future regarding spreads and pics because I think there might you pick profit play that no one’s really talking about. But I’ll talk about that in The future probably towards the end of the podcast, so stay tuned and probably don’t stay to whatever. No, seriously though, I’ll probably mention it fairly soon. Hopefully it’s not gonna be too late and I don’t want to keep you guys up and awake.
Going for the next pic and despite me being wrong with the Vikings, plus seven, pick up three and two at that point. Technically I am three, I’m technically three, one and one because of bills. picklists was plus three, but I got in it plus two and a half. But I’m so confident and last, but realistically, it’s actually healthy. At the time of the pic. I’m actually 301 but I rather treat myself I’d rather just be harsh on myself here to say I’m three and two so far as of a Vikings game. As for the moneyline very similar I told leave likings plus 255 was a good deal. I said that probably they went at least one out of three times 3330 about 30 35% of the time which Which makes at odds at plus 200 better or plus 200 or better, but good value based on implied odds, I think the implied odds indicated I think they’d have to win at least I think bare minimum like 28 or 29% of the time, and I believe they would win between 35% of the time they were at 35% of the time so so again, that to me screen like it was good value. And the whole idea of making these underdog pics is to find long term value and not immediate value, considering there are enough games in the playoffs. This case that for me to consider that I still consider that a decent pic. I just more or less assumed that the bike is we’re just going to make it close within a touchdown with a potential drive to win. And having plus t 55. At least in this scenario that I had in my head would be good enough but it was not. As for the over under the under was 44 points and we did hit the under it was not the score that I wanted to have for the Under but they scored 37 points total so that seven points beneath the under and my prediction for the game was Vikings 23 San Francisco 20 That was way off and both Vikings obviously scored has 10 points and pointing underscore 27 but rolling back to the over under me being correct makes me three and two as of this game now, the neck the following game was the Titans ravens I picked the Ravens to win in the pickup and I think the whole world did. Well, I take that back the whole world at least paper ravens seemed like they were going to win on the straight up. The point spread I told you guys just seemed very weird. And I was debating it because the plus tend to seem certainly high regardless of most scenarios that it played out in my head. I just seem that the Titans just no matter what this continue to score, they grind away they have a decent strong, you know, defense overall. And the Ravens. I think they were writing as well. game win streak or 1010 or 11 game win streak, but the matchup just didn’t feel right. Especially with Mr. Jackson still haven’t really proved himself in the playoffs. So I took the Titans plus 10 because it just seemed to make the most sense. I just couldn’t imagine ravens actually winning. Just Yeah, more than 10 points even worst case scenario. And we also we all saw the game are Titans just punched ravens in the mouth. And Lamar Jackson kind of just folded under the pressure, I want to say folded. He just wasn’t the leader that I think a lot of people wanted him to be considering when they were, you know, behind early is it kind of felt like the team really didn’t get together there. They’re almost felt like they were down and out and I didn’t really see the fight in the team that I was hoping for, and, you know, coming from, I think, Jim Harbaugh or what the heart rose.
You know, for the coaching, it seemed like that was something that they would be more mentally prepared for. I think when it comes to leadership, especially on the offense, that does have to be around the quarterback like they have to be the leader. Now they’re the one that holds the ball pretty much every play. And you know, you didn’t see that with Lamar Jackson in that particular game. So even when the Titans are up a little bit, it just felt like it was a sure bet that the plus 10 was going to happen regardless. And the fact that the Titans one before I hop into that moneyline pick up before so it was playing out the plus 10 did end up winning so that makes sense for into for the playoffs technically for one to one depending on who depending on your mindset there. But for into at this point in the playoffs go into the money line. I didn’t make the Titans pick and I highlighted this at Orange because it was a more of a cautious paper. I said this is going to be like a half unit because I felt like Titans could win this. But I wasn’t absurdly confident because the Ravens shown throughout the season that they can be dynamic at any time. given point, but I think someone did mention that whenever the Ravens do seem to be behind they have trouble coming from behind so the Titans did what they needed to do to just shake the Ravens and just you know put them to shambles throughout the rest of the game. So if you did bet this game this paid out this was a plus 340 so this paid you know 3.4 units plus the original unit you bet which honestly at this point would make would make the postseason money like pics two into with those two major underdog victories so now at this point, regardless of the pets being up 6.6 units with one two, probably about five more games remaining. The talk about from the divisional round conference game Super Bowl would actually be winners. Regardless if we just were wrong. Every single moneyline pit just keep that in mind. And then the over under I put the overs 46.5 I was very disappointed in this game because I thought the Titans were still going to be scoring at least 24, maybe 28 points. And they did that they scored 23 was 28 points. I’m going to double-check the score here. So Titans ravens pulling this up right now. Yeah, they’re just which one you points cut exactly what I’ve imagined. But I just was not expecting with Baltimore delayed egg, especially the two of the quarters like first the third quarter, first and third quarter they came out flat. And it’s kind of hard to gain your momentum, your momentum back when you’re a team that’s just known for just taking the lead and running with it and not so much coming from behind. So I really thought the Ravens run to at least score more than 20 point or at least 20 points. That was not the case here. So I missed the over sadly, that was probably the most confusing one because I actually put to it and said that. So I think moving forward I’m going to stick with single unit because every single time I’m confident in a pic I don’t know why I bit more units over unders and spreads because historically I’ve been winning with spreads.
Don’t think it comes back to bite me so
I consider this is a bad big battle over under so I apologize like I I just did not think how the game played out. I just thought, I’m gonna say too bad because they were only down by like, we’re off by six points but I just thought the Titans did what they’re supposed to. And I’m just disappointed that the Ravens put it. I don’t know, other people saw that. But I would consider this as a mediocre pickup in hindsight. Because I don’t I felt the matchup seemed like Titans had a realistic chance or at least decent chance of winning the game. Especially more than like to watch 25 or like 20% chance that the flight odds have given everything I said like it was similar to the Vikings. It’s like a 30 35% chance maybe 40 on a good day, but we’re wrong there. So at this point of overlanders for the playoffs were three and three. My prediction for the game I actually had the Ravens winning my prediction was 3424. Again, when I made these predictions these are probably the worst case scenarios and for better or worse or best case scenarios, I should say because there’s gonna be so many different finishes outside of that, but I wanted to give you guys like the horror score imaginable for me to actually justify at least describe pic and then kind of explain why I was a little bit cautious on the money line pick and bet half a unit there. Like I said, I mentioned the Ravens probably maxing out 34 points, Titans at least 2428. Alternatively, this still could have been a 2428 game but in Titans favor, but I think majority of the time I still thought that ravens were going to win but Moneyline was such a good value and I could I told you guys that was probably just a strong guy he picked regardless so and that’s why we took it and going to the next game. We have the Texans chiefs reviewing that the pickup I said the Chiefs were going to win that and they did, which makes my pickup record three and four. And then the spread, I had the Chiefs minus 9.5. And I was going to miss between the Texans and chiefs on this one because I thought the line was fairly close. But then the more I thought, and I more thought about this overtime and I rarely actually pick the favorites on these, but I did hear and the more I kept playing, not playing in my head, I just kept screaming. The chiefs are always going to run away with it at the end of the game that they are not they’re known to never slow down whoever they’re also known to have terrible clock penetrating those games. So now my also imagined Houston probably could have had a couple scores close as well. Maybe you know, like a garbage touchdown. That would make me nervous on the game, but I wanted to stick it I didn’t want to overthink this. chiefs were just a very strong team coming in. They kind of lost their funk in that season, but they regain their form and probably are playing their best football right now. Same with the Titans and Houston assistant so inconsistent and I really didn’t pay too much attention to the coaching until after the game obviously but a lot of people would have been harping on the coaching the Houston coaching for a while now and I kind of missed the boat on that. Luckily, in our in our case, the coaching was what did that the Texans in as if you didn’t see the game, it did look like the Chiefs minus nine and a half was going to be a far cry from ever happening. But little did I know and everyone else know that it is possible to have two blowouts in a single game, which blew my mind because after the first quarter, you in the beginning of the second quarter, my wife and I we turned on the TV to watch the game. And we noticed it was a blowout and we’re just like well, so much for that minus nine and a half. And then once we’re making some food and not even get to what 12 minutes later they were within three which blew everyone’s mind but at the same time
I had the sound on it you could just hear the audio of like the crowd just keeps roaring and I guess it all started with that. And I started with that field goal attempt at what their own 12 with a fourth and inches, which I know a lot of people are going to get flack for but I wouldn’t even consider that a huge momentum switch. I’d say going for it on fourth down and like your own 15 year old line or something, there’s something absurd like that, like a fourth and eight. Like I think that the Big Pun was probably the worst decision considering the decision you made before was the most cowardly decision relative to the inconsistency of that fourth down play which made zero sense. So I guess the coaching got a little bit too cute for themselves but that certainly was a big game changer that might as well bet a like a 14 point swing, let’s be honest, because you just can’t you killed any momentum that you would had and chiefs are starting to get back into it and they and they allow that to happen. So so i i went ahead and just like they said, felt like the chiefs are still playing It’s 9.5. And after the first half, when they’re up by four, it just seemed like it was going to happen based on the momentum. We all saw the score 41 straight points. You know, that’s almost college level of absurdity there. And we, you know, we somehow managed to get the win there. And it was a sweat but also a breeze at the same time, which, again, one of the weirdest games I think anyone has ever seen. But we’ll take it will take the wind, which leaves us five and two for the season or, or, you know, five to 501. And again, like I said, I’m pretty good with the spreads. I do have to say stuff for myself. So in regards to the money line, this was a pass. I told you guys, I don’t think Texas went enough, especially in Kansas City to make this good value. And I think the Chiefs line was just a little bit too low and, and I just felt like betting really, really strong, you know, minus lines. I don’t find those to be good values because upsets happen all the time, especially football with any given Sunday, I passed on the so that kept our record two to four Moneyline pics. As for the over-under either the overactivity one, the Kansas City Chiefs crush the over by themselves or not, I think they matched up by themselves. So, you know, there’s nothing really to worry about there after the first quarter when Houston was up 21 zero, I think we all knew that Kansas City was going to have some sort of charge back maybe score like 14 to 20 points to make it a game. So would have been like a 21 like 31 game against Ted things probably played out the way it was supposed to without the text and screwing it up. And that’s still felt comfortable enough for the over refresh the over which makes our record for the playoffs four and three. And then also, the big note I had for the Chiefs game. I wrote this to whenever Houston is underdog I big they lose hard. They’re only one in four and the only win was early in the season. And this is a comeback that can pretty much break a team and then we’ve seen this with the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl. The Texans also come to it as well. It just seems like there’s just a lot of noise that goes on that I do think when the media pushes a narrative, it’s up to the players either to like block it out or, or you know, be consumed by it. And it seems like anytime there’s a big underdog like it when they’re at least minus or you know, there are their underdog with like a plus seven or above or plus eight. I think the media does actually talking about that, like interviews about how much of an underdog they are. And I think the Texans actually believe that a little bit more maybe the coaching too, but it seems like you’re just not mentally tough enough. Or at least like the coaches discipline is just not there. I do think the Texas do have all the talent they’ve shown to be they can win against anyone other Well, the consistent so I that’s not a talent play. It’s got to be a coaching or scheming or something. So that was a mantra we took. And that’s what happened. So I my prediction for the game was nowhere close. Had chiefs 33 with Texans 23 actual game I believe was, I think 31 Houston, I think 52% some absurd number with the chiefs. So, yeah, so way off on the prediction, but it was still assuming was a high scoring game. And, you know, I played my worst case scenario with chiefs game 3323. So I’m pretty happy with the play. And then the final divisional round game, the Seahawks and the Packers. And this was a game I hated the pic either way, because I felt like it was going to be a toss up, it was going to come down to a final drive, which I’ll get to that later. But I picked the Seahawks and my pickup. I just felt like the Seahawks were slightly going to be a better team and it would probably get the last drive to sneak just to sneak away from the victory at least that’s how it played out in my head. What I was bummed about in this one was the spread was Seahawks plus four. This was a loss and this was a very; this was a points lip of winning or losing. Mainly because when they were up or when the score was I think 2328 after they scored the touchdown and went for a two point conversion which I don’t know why Carol does this but he just decides to like the lollygag most of the game and then once Russell Wilson take over in the second half whoever whenever it comes to these do or die situations I noticed they just refuse to run the ball despite the fact that they were run heavy offense and they usually run to open up Russell Wilson later and Russell Wilson did help with the comeback. But when it comes to these do or die plays especially near the goal line, you have beastmode who literally just took it in from like a yard or yard and a half out and he like pounded as he pounded his way in for like an extra yard and a half inch vertical line.
Like that’s more than enough to justify just running the ball. All right, you had like four chances to do a Superbowl Carol, you didn’t want to do that. You had another chance to do it. You had like a few chances and the goal line that drive prior this game you did it the white gold situation. This run the darn ball. Okay, we would have gotten the You wouldn’t want with a plus three. But I still believe Seattle is going to have at least an additional possession. And I think a lot of us that see that footage of the very favorable spots, the rest gave Packers that was good yard and have sure where they marked it, but it just doesn’t make too much sense on kind of how that played out despite the fact that I was pretty sure that Kirby was gonna go for a fourth timer. Regardless, that is it. But that’s a whole different theory about like the whole time being a timeout situation there too. I was pretty annoyed because Seattle did waste two timeouts in my head. It’s like how it played out when they probably could have had another chance to add possession. My my biggest gripe, and I’ll say it right now too, because I’m probably going to talk more about this and I really should talk more about like football strategy and timeout articles and stuff, like a medium or whoever wants to listen. But the fact that Seattle took a timeout with two minutes and I think eight seconds left, two minutes and seven seconds left. Down the clock. They had three timeouts at the time, and no two timeouts at the time. And by doing that, they thought they pretty much opted to give Green Bay. two choices before the two minute mark, because when you are, I think that that was gonna be a third down situation. Yeah. What about a third down situation? That was the third down I believe or second down that was second down.
By doing that
the next play would have been third down at the Two Minute Warning had they not call the timeout had you not call the timeout you would have lost eight seconds on the clock and that’s fine. You know, Seattle can score it within like 40 seconds down the field. Okay, so the two minute thing doesn’t matter. You just need to get the ball back. But they say that timeout. You would have two timeouts with the third down coming up after the Two Minute Warning. If they get a first time you can call timeout you might get 20 seconds back, okay. However, what they did was they call it sample before, hoping that they would get the First down, and that’s still a valid strategy. But what they did is open up Green Bay with the ability to pass without any repercussion. Because a play that Aaron Rodgers can take after snap can last five to 10 seconds he can hold on to the ball and check it downfield. It gets a two minute warning and if it’s incomplete that’s fine so Two Minute Warning you know, they don’t game there’s no virtual time again like the time is gonna stop regardless so you’re not giving Seattle another down or another free quote unquote timeout to burn by doing so they let themselves with one timeout after the Two Minute Warning and that was after the fact that like they were going to do that their downplay. So it was kind of a bummer to see that because it had Green Bay. So what about their third down first down they were what at what have actually had two timeouts and one divert. And or the one prior they would have an extra timeout, which, again would have been enough for them to at least get the ball back. Worst case scenario. Like maybe you might have had like five seconds tonight. Left please still would open yourself a legitimate chance of coming back so I don’t get that like like I don’t know why coaches ever call timeout when there’s like two minutes and 10 seconds left you know in any scenario because you can pretty much you know with enough time go risk-free without you know without stopping the clock if you’re on the offense trying to run out the clock so I don’t get it Yeah, that’s just my side rant about the game and I have you know loose losing by that close clearly I had some bias there but as for the money flowing, I did fix the ox the one of the moneyline Like I said, I thought this is a clean flip in any situation where it’s a flat out coin flip, especially with the Seahawks that have been road warriors that win at the end of games. it’s a good play regardless, so we didn’t get that one. So that’s a loss, which makes us two at three total after divisional round. But again, after minus three pics we already up Yeah, we are already up 6.6 units taking away the three we’re only up 3.6 units. Regardless if we get the next three moneyline pics wrong or right, we’re going to be profitable. So, you know congrats to us. As for the Seahawks game the over under I had the honor of 47 the under did I believe have it happen? So we managed to get that no, we did it. No no no, no no this game kinda went out of control I believe so. Seahawks and then Packers I want to double check this one. I like said I record everything on here. Yes 2328 so they scored 51 did not get the under so that makes us for and for our prediction for the game of Seahawks. 23 correct. Unfortunately, the Packers did score more points. So that’s kind of how I saw it. And Funny enough, I kind of had to 23 points because I just thought Packer Seahawks were going to mess up a two point conversion to try to get a six point lead. In case the packers are going to come back so that’s kind of spooky. That the scenario that the Seahawks scenario played out in my head, but not the scenario of them coming from behind to get close, I thought they were trying to ice the game and get video, try to force Green Bay and getting a touchdown with a sliver chance of them missing a field goal to tie it, so are the extra points to tie it in my prediction head scenario. So
little bit bummed about that game that was like, that was a huge over, over and we’re only we were only a possession away from getting to two at one in LA and that game in a row for three. But overall, for the playoffs for the moneyline three and five for the pickups. I should say, the spreads I’m five and three or five, two and one. Depending on the bill spread it when you got that in. And then two and three for the money line but will be profitable for garlis and then forth. For the over under.
AFC and NFC Conference Picks, Predications and Plays
So, moving forward, you guys probably just, you can be you guys could probably just negate like any of my pics except for probably the moneylenders frets at this point. But now we’re talking about this coming weeks games. I’m excited guys. There are only two games and we’re going to go over the games first and then we’re going to go over props. And we’ll talk about that as we get to it. But for the matchup are the Titans and chiefs. This is going to be a very interesting matchup because these are two red hot teams at the moment.
And you know, Henry has been for the Titans just been a godsend. And so instead of Hell, I feel like their offense is actually dual threat. And the last game that the Titans and she’s faced off each other with it was a shootout, I believe. I think both teams scored I think 30 or maybe the score was like 28 to 33. Titans just tend to put up 28 points, occasionally almost every week now. That tendo I think had three touchdowns but Holmes had four touchdowns 446 Guards. I think this is going to be a shoot like the flat out shootout.
And because of that, I’m still going to pick the Chiefs in the pickup. However, when it comes to the spread, the Titans are plus seven and a half. And if the spread goes lower than nights as the spread goes plus six and a half I might be going against the chiefs. But as of now, when I made these pics, the Titans were plus seven and a half so that’s going to be my eyeline and I think the hard line here is seven points that I think this is going to be a swimming game and one team or the other is going to be scoring touchdowns. I think if this game isn’t going to overtime, a team’s gonna win district strictly through probably the first possession touchdown. So anything that’s plus six makes me nervous plus six and a half I still kind of bit nervous but likely plus seven for the Titans feel decent with plus seven and a half Titans. Looking good. Now the opening line was I think plus nine and a half, which I probably should have gotten in on the Putting up line, but I make all my pics midweek just because I think that’s probably more like the wall happens and you guys are more likely to get the pics and before like the last minute rush or like any last minute line changes.
So again, we’re probably losing some EV out of that and that’s expected value or long term ROI. I think they’re also called it like CLV if you’re really into the sports betting world, and I don’t want to talk about that, but the Titans are plus seven and a half. I can’t imagine this being a low scoring game I can like I said, I kind of mentioned this being a high scoring swing a game. The Titans defense is something that will probably slow Kansas City down to where they’re not going to score 51 points.
And it probably will be something more along the lines of I don’t know like 28 to 30 points scored probably but maximum Kansas City, maybe a little bit more than maybe like 35 or something like that. But I can’t go against Texas plus seven a half that’s I feels like a good, good value overall still. And I can’t imagine I can certainly imagine scenarios for the Down by 10, but still needing a touchdown to get in. And if you want to buy the plus half and get the plus eight, I don’t blame you, I may do that as well. But my scenario that I have, I feel like they’re only gonna be down by 10 points at worse, with probably getting a field goal and to try to get close at the end of the game. as I see fit like it, assuming chiefs are able to continue their streak.
And then for the money losing the money line has the Titans at plus two and ID, which wishes almost implies pretty much that the Titans have to win one out of four times just a little bit more than that. But for them to make it valuable and the way I see this game, and I feel at the end of the day, this is probably a 3565 we’re Titans win 35% of the time, maybe 40% of the time. They are a really hot team right now in a very streaky team and they have a lot of the pieces together, especially defense and offense. And I think that might be something that she’s from We’ll have to run into. And the big thing is though, the Chiefs have shown last week compared to the Ravens, you know, Boone Holmes was punched in the mouth, down 24 points.
He was the guy, he was the leader that everyone wanted, like everybody expected him to be. and his team got together and they made stuff happen. And they blew up the 28 points. And the same thing, you know, compare that to the Ravens where they were down early, and they hit start out slow. Nothing really came to fruition. So, you know, there’s a big difference in mindsets and the tight the Chiefs have just shown like that they’re never out period. And they firmly believe that they could win any game regardless of the team situation. And that’s just scary. So, you know, I can never give the Titans actually a winning percentage here. Regardless, any one of the Titans do have the lead. I still kind of expect Kansas City to make it pretty close, maybe near the end.
The only thing that I can imagine what will follow the Chiefs in this case is if any risk any reads clock management, or game management ends up biting them in the butt. But generally when it comes to high scoring close games, chiefs tend to lose a lot more. I think this is probably when they won last week. I think that was probably like their first or second game. I think they’re in the read mahomes arrow that they’ve actually won a game by scoring more than 50 points. So defense is still suspect and the Titans this, I feel like matchup wise is a perfect chance to beat the chiefs. Realistically, I might add, so plus to 90. I think that’s an absurd value. Even plus 200 I would still consider that would be a good pic. So plus 90, I have to take that every single time.
The over under for the game is 52.5 which is the highest overall and I can’t imagine this game being I just can’t imagine title scoring less than 2324 points and I can’t imagine the chief scoring Like 28 to 30 points escape so even just adding those up that’s still precious the over picking 2.5 is over so the current line when that’s my story I’m sticking to the overall prediction for the game. I think this is going to be a super close one wouldn’t doubt the Titans to win this probably like another last drive thing, but I’m going to give chiefs the credit that they deserve that they’re probably gonna evolve from the year before your prior especially with Mahomes. Around they’re gonna win 40 or sorry 34 to 33 in a thriller. That’s, that’s my scenario that I’m planning out of my head.
As for the next game, Packers vs. 40 Niners, I feel like this is going to be a repeat at the 40 Niners Seahawks Are you know that the Seahawks game? Packers were ugly but the 40 Niners have been a complete team, but it just seems like the Packers just know how to win and win to win, which makes me very nervous. So because of that, I think 40 Niners aren’t going to run are going to shut down the bays they do in Minnesota. Big packers are actually are like at least one tier ahead of Minnesota at the moment, they have more of a big team. The Packers plus seven and a half just doesn’t make too much sense. And sorry, yeah, too much sense to be that big of a line so I have to take that spread, it just seems too big. I will get nervous again both titans of Packers the moment it gets plus six and a half I’ll be very nervous but plus seven or plus seven and a half is still a good line. So at the time, meet six plus seven and a half and both. I think those are solid ones.
As for the money line, again, this is going to be a value pick. packers are just one of them. That’s it. And appointing enters have lost a few close games but they’re both pretty strong like teams and they know how to close out and I think this is still going to come down to a final drive. And I don’t know how many times have I said this but like when it comes to final drives that feel like they’re more 5050 any line that’s plus 200 but like especially for a strong team, like the Packers is a stupid value. Okay, so it’s a stupid value and I have to take the Packers just on principle there.
And, and if we’re looking for like a long term if we’re looking for short term immediate wins, then I probably would not bet this at all. But I’m a value guy, where I try to see the edges I try to see the team momentum, and I try to see how they win and how their styles mesh when they play each other. And I can’t imagine the Packers radiometers being either like I said a high scoring game or a low scoring game I this game has so many possibilities regarding the score and I don’t like that. But because of that I still think the Packers do win this at least 3530 to 35% of the time which is still more than enough to justify the plus to 80 they might even sneak into the 40 range depending on like day. If it’s like colder out honestly I feel like the Packers fan actually a little bit of advantage. But still are the advantage though to have more of an advantage to still be disadvantage team, but just have that slight edge to make them more likely to win, right. So the back of the pack are so close to 80 split the over under this is going to be the first one that I’m passing on. I think the mine is at 45.
And I just don’t know if I can’t predict this game. It’s just too much. The history like this can easily be a 12 seven game a 1215 game, this could be a 2820 game, or 20, you know, a 2324 game 2320 or, you know, a 3012 game like it there. There are so many possibilities that are realistic in this game. I can’t think of over under. So this is actually going to be my first pass on an over under because there’s just I just don’t have enough information, especially on their play styles. It can vary week to week. It’s just way to swing it for me to be comfortable with the pic there. Whoever the prediction that I have, I think still going to come down to the wire. I have the 40 Niners winning this game 23 to 21.
And I think it’s probably just goes down to the Packers at the end if they can probably get their field goal get Crosby out and get yeah get Mason Crosby out for game winning attempts. I think that’s what it’s going to boil down to this could be a 2423 game Packers, and if that’s the case that goes at that beats the over, but if they missed the field goal that’s gonna, you know, get the under. And again, I don’t like the sitz scenarios so. So I don’t like the over-under I think the prediction is going to be fairly close in the 20s for both teams. And that’s what we have for the conference championship. So that’s what we talked about playoff props. I made at least a few props here about six.
They’re technically three props These are 1234 props, that there are four props that are more favored in the three that are not favored. For example the first one that I have and all these are going to be for the Kansas City Tennessee game I do not have any problems with the Green Bay 40 Niners game because I’ve won have not spent enough time researching both teams to both teams seem to be while the consistent Game Over game three same thing I rather just focus on the teams that I’m used to and I actually watch more frequently which is Kansas City of Tennessee so so I’m only going to focus on this game for the props.
At least props you can fat half units, full units, whatever. And if you’re so far if you’re this far into the podcast and you’re still wondering, oh yeah, what’s the unit? Well, I’ll tell you what a unit is. The unit is a domination that’s set on you and whatever you feel like it or you’re more of a sports better it’s a unit is a percentage off of your bankroll So, for support so for some professional sports betters will need it could be 1% of your bankroll.
And if you’re a kind of an average Joe, one unit could be $5 or $10 or whatever you just feel like you consider your consistent bets. You know that You’re comfortable with. So we do that because it helps us better identify, you know, our federal debt wins and losses long term. And it kind of keeps us in check of, you know, how much should we bet over and over again if you’re going to be betting more frequently so the Kansas City Tennessee game I’m going to go over these bets in order and I’ll give you some logic wife for Teto have him plus 18 yards rushing and I just say you know, I make it all my bets in this case on a bet online ag the my bookie that he does not have any props available for these games.
They might have it later, but I’m just going to stick with the props that have been shown up to this point when I did my research. So I have 10 a hill plus 18 yards rushing similar game with Kansas City. Today Hall does actually show the ability to run, and he can run fairly frequently. When he’s able to, you know have time in the pocket and whenever they’re wondering. Whenever they are able to leverage Henry, it makes a lot of sense to. And the last game of Kansas City in Tennessee, I think he rushed for like 3334 yards. I’m not going to say he’s going to rush a lot, but he does tend to run fairly frequently, especially on these in these quote unquote high scoring affairs. So the line for that currently is minus 113, which isn’t egregious. And I think that’s, I think that’s likely to happen this game.
And then the other one for the Tennessee specifically is Henry. I have two props on him. And one of them is Henry is going to run for Lisa plus 111 yards, which I think against Kansas City’s defense is very likely, the fact that the line is minus 117 is really strong. And Henry has just been Beasley he’s been averaging like 150 or 160 games. The last game against Kansas City he ran for I think 186 yards like 30 carries.
He is just a beast at this time. He’s hot right now he’s just on fire. Don’t get stopped. If Kansas City stops him then I think Tennessee is gonna have a lot of trouble. But the line is minus 117 and rushing for at least 111 yards is very doable. And I probably would max that out though but maybe I like 150 depending on the ads but like for standard like favorable odds here plus 111 yards, I think it’s realistic. Then I have another Henry profit and this is where these are becoming more like underdog pics here the underdog prop pics so you guys do not have to make these pics.
These are the ones that I really like personally. And the other one is Henry rushing for at least 140 yards. I think I think 140 to 150 range is probably where Henry is going going to end up and the plus 141 yards. The line is plus 156. And again, I still think that’s still like a coin flipping since it’s going to be plus 150. And I really do think that’s going to be a profitable product. Play, it’s gonna take a while for him to get to it. Or maybe not. Who knows he might break that in the first half. So I have that. And then I have to, to hear from Mahomes and the first one I think it’s fairly easy when the line is kind of weird here is Mahomes throwing for at least 320 yards passing. I just believe he’s going to go off and throw up like 353 80 maybe also the 400 the previous game that he had he almost threw for 450 yards Mahomes has been on fire throughout the playoffs.
I think he hasn’t thrown an interception yet. Despite his first loss. I think last year he has been lights out in the playoffs. I think pull it for 320 is almost a Kimmy and the minus one on one. So I don’t know what Vegas is thinking there. But if you guys can get that plus 320 line almost at breakeven snap take that one like that one, I’m feeling very confident. And then I decided to go a little bit frisky here and go for Mahomes also four plus 370 yards Passing which line is plus 250?
I think this one isn’t as likely he still might throw in like the 352 the three at range, but I do think the lineup being plus 254 plus or having plus 370 yards passing when he shown the capability just throw four plus 375 regularly and about the Texans are the Titans previous matchup of throwing 440 yards. I don’t see any rushing playmakers and with like, Tyree kill, just toss out there and Kelsey is probably going to go off. I can’t imagine him throwing for less, especially when I believe it’s gonna be high scoring your fair despite 10 Hills defense, you know, sorry that tells Tennessee’s defensive prowess here then there are two more this is so these ones are probably a little more far fetched.
But the tight end for the Tennessee Titans is Andrew fraktur. Our fixer, I can’t pronounce it. I have to props on him. It I say this because it’s a very interesting line. Because as a titan as a tight end, I don’t think he’s gotten it, why buy it back and tighten it or maybe it’s a block and tighten. He’s got a couple of receptions every once in a while and a couple games
. But the light here is if he’s able to get to reception, and this is for ixr. Then the line pace minus 221. So please get to us the line. He’s gotten a couple a few times this season. But I think in this game, this is going to be fairly, I think Santos is going to focus on like sharp, like focus on Henry for take advantage of short passes and just take advantage of any openings that Kansas Kansas City opens up. I think two is very doable.
The one that’s very far fetched though, is the line four plus three receptions are three-plus receptions. So he can throw for three or get three or more on the line pays for plus 231 which going from a minus 121 two plus 231 is a huge swing.
Huge swing for another reason So in regards to playoff football and trying to be a massive, massive behemoth in Kansas City when you’re Tennessee they think Tennessee is going to go sell all the staffs maximize all their talent I think three receptions is plausible to I feel is more likely but the three with the Monday lineup or sorry with the lineup plus 231 is something that’s probably worth taking. Though you might want to go have you that there are at least that’s my plan to see where that ends up.
So, you know, a lot of my playoff watching and sweats going to be on Kansas City this week, because I think it’s going to be an irritating matchup and just I don’t know I think everyone’s going to be loving that game. And you know for I think for like score I get entertainment value. I think the Kansas City or sorry, the 40 Niners Packers game probably will be just a good matchup in general. I don’t think it’s going to be a high scoring affair. But there you have it, folks. picked as what’s eight different places. For this weekend and then 1234567 different playoff props. We get to review that next week. And we’ll see where we go from there. I think next week, I’ll probably spend some time talking about the Super Bowl matchup. And then this might be a two parter, which might be like some of the game props and then player props that might appear. So yeah, I think that’s how it’s going to be. So next week, let’s spend some time I’ll spend some time talking about game props and game matchups, similar to what I’ve been doing now. And then the following week, we’ll probably have a props version or dive deeper into the matchup. That’s going to be two weeks after that so I want to keep the least more the betting consistent, or this consistent throughout the playoffs.
After the playoffs. I don’t know if I’m going to be doing any more. More betting or pics types. I think the NFL format is absolutely perfect when it comes to these types of episodes. Because I don’t know how frequently you guys listened to each episode. I don’t know if you listen to it once a night
I also don’t want my content to be super topical or super trendy. To wear like you have to listen to the podcast the specific day and then try to get your bets in like that night or two nights for two nights over then
I like to focus on events specifically.
So there you have it. I’m I think I’m going to talk about different strategies to with certain bets that I do especially with the UFC or MMA. I found that to be pretty profitable if you’re able to look at like the correct lines. But overall, I hopefully you guys have enjoyed the podcast or if you’re still awake, hopefully you can get some Z’s. Make sure maybe to take your CBD gummy. Take a look at that pillow I mentioned I’m going to include that in the description as well.
And you guys can take care, and dream easy.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai